Leila's Lines- Week 2

Sample of 1000 registered voters:

Biden: 51.4% Trump 42.5%

Biden has an 8.9 point lead-- 1.9 points higher than last week’s lines

Trump approval rating: 43% approve (3% down from last week’s lines) while 53% disapprove (2% up from last week’s lines)

States with close races:

• North Carolina: Biden: 48.6% Trump: 46.4%

• Ohio: Biden: 47.5% Trump: 47.0%

• Florida: Biden: 47.9% Trump: 45.2%

• Georgia: Biden: 47.1% Trump: 46.5% (Biden is now winning the state unlike he was last week.)

• Iowa: Biden: 46.2% Trump: 47.3%

• Texas: Biden: 45.8% Trump: 48.1%

• Arizona: Biden: 49.0% Trump: 44.6%

• Pennsylvania: Biden: 50.6% Trump: 44.0%

3 things that will affect voters:

The First 2020 Presidential Debate:

This 90 minute segment was hardly a debate; Biden struggled to get a word out as Trump continued to talk over him with lies and other hindering nonsense.

Trump’s performance was inhumane. Biden has openly addressed his ongoing struggles with his stutter. Many people have taken to social media to explain that people with stutters often face increased difficulties in speaking when interrupted. Trump knew exactly what he was doing when he challenged Biden’s stutter with his continuous jabs. Biden’s annoyance of Trump’s performance led him to my favorite line of the night: “will you shut up, man?” Trump, however, did not “shut up.”

Did Trump’s ruthless debate etiquette swing some voters to Biden?

Polls have shown that Trump’s poor performance has led to a decrease in his voter base. Furthermore, polls have highlighted a rise in Biden’s approval rating after the debate. Much of Trump’s performance was off-putting, but one of the most inhumane actions of the night was his inability to denounce white supremacy. He also claims to have paid “millions of dollars” in income taxes which completely contradicts the recent report of his $0-$750 tax payments. Furthermore, he said he wants “crystal clear water and air,” yet he has done more than any former president to eliminate environmental protections; air pollution rose within just the first 2 years of his presidency. In line with his usual rhetoric, Trump also declared that the nation is turning its corner on COVID-19, and a vaccine will be out in “weeks.” It’s actually hard to count how many lies Trump made while on stage.

Trump didn’t just criticize organizations and state representatives, he took a direct shot at his opponent. He called late Beau Biden a “loser” and attacked Hunter Biden for his substance abuse problems. Once again, as people took to social media to unpack the events of the debate, an extremely significant point has been made: how is the nation supposed to de-stigmatize mental health issues if the POTUS uses one as an attack and insult?

It’s clear that Trump’s actions were cruel and offensive which has left more people leaning toward Biden. That is not to say, however, that Biden’s performance was perfect. He said "I'm totally opposed to defunding the police.” Such a statement will not sit well with people who are widely calling for the defunding. While Biden’s performance was far more compassionate and well executed than Trump’s, this statement could cause people to hold back on being enthusiastic for him. I don’t think that his push back on defunding the police will necessarily turn people to vote for Trump. However, I think it may stop the extremely leftists voters from voting for anyone at all, for no one aligns well enough with their views. Leftists not voting because neither candidate is sufficient is a scary sight, however. Biden will get this nation closer to the ideals that many have; he may not take us directly there, but it will be closer than what Trump will do.

Donald Trump Gets COVID-19:

There’s so much irony in Trump getting COVID, but, in reality, this wasn’t a matter of “if,” this was “when.” Just days after he mocked Joe Biden for wearing a mask and taking precautions, Trump was rushed to Walter Reed Hospital to be treated for the virus. In 2016, when he was running for his first term as president, he mocked his then opponent Hillary Clinton for almost fainting before entering her car as a result of her pneumonia. It’s clear that Trump treats his opponents with great disrespect and is ill-spirited. This time around with the election, his opponent isn’t the sick one, though; it’s him. One could only imagine the way he would speak about Biden if he got COVID. Biden took a graceful approach saying he wishes that Trump has a safe and fast recovery. What I find the most ironic about Trump dealing with COVID is that since he now has a pre-existing health condition, he could be discriminated against under his own healthcare plans.

So how will all this affect voters? Here are some clear implications of his contraction of the virus:

Trump will have to suspend his campaign plans indefinitely-- including his planned trips to Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina. Furthermore, Trump has dealt with the virus with a nonchalant attitude and lack of compassion. He’s convinced voters that the virus is nothing to worry about and continued to do so even after he was put on oxygen and hospitalized. Trump downplayed the virus for multiple months even when he knew it was deadly; he continued to relate it to the seasonal flu. Trump would not be helicoptered back and forth from a hospital if this was such a negligible virus and was just like the flu. Will this cause Trump voters to realize that maybe this is something to worry about and Trump has been lying to them the whole time? This might be the case for Trump supporters or undecided voters with somewhat malleable perspectives, but for die-hard Trump fans, his illness is unlikely to change their decision. If anything, they’ll sympathize (or actually empathize if they’ve been sick) and just support him even more. The timing, though, is not great for Trump. After being under heat for his poor debate etiquette, his unwillingness to comply with scientific recommendations and, thus, get COVID-19 will prove to swing voters that he’s really an incapable leader. Hopefully, his incompetence will lead undecided voters towards Biden.

Trump Paid $750 in Income Taxes:

Yes, you read that right. Even though Trump claimed to have paid “millions” in income taxes, investigations and an extensive article published by the New York Times suggests otherwise. He took $70,000 in tax deductions for hair care. When AOC treated herself to a $250 cut and color for her birthday, she was ridiculed by her Republican counterparts. But now we know that Trump has spent 280 times that amount, and the same people that criticized AOC are now quiet.

It’s safe to assume that Trump’s record as a businessman played a role in his 2016 election successes. His supporters particularly liked his stance on the economy and his track record of being a wealthy businessman. Trump, and many of his supporters, claim that his pre-COVID economy was one of his greatest successes. While it’s true that there was a booming job market, the economy was already set on a positive trend by the Obama administration; essentially, Trump inherited a very healthy economy. However, some Trump voters refuse to believe that Obama contributed to the economy and allot all the credit to Trump. In this case, these voters, if open to changing their views, may now see that Trump’s businessman personality was just a facade. Exposing his taxes proves that he actually was never as successful as he claimed to have been, and they also prove that he undermined the laws in order to protect his wealth. Will disproving his claimed successes as a businessman make uncertain voters swing more towards Biden? This is a possibility, but there’s also a chance that people believe Trump’s lies of paying “millions” in income taxes. Ultimately, whether people side with Trump on his taxes or not could largely be attributed to the news sources they consume and, thus, the media they let shape their perspectives. Only listening to Trump or listening to him disproportionately more than other news sources causes extremely ill-informed voters.

In other news:

Amy Coney Barrett is Trump’s Supreme Court Nomination:

On gun control:

During her time on the 7th Circuit, she was part of the dissenting view in Kanter v. Barr. In this case, the majority argued that the government has the right to keep guns from people convicted of serious crimes. In her dissent, she said that the Second Amendment “confers an individual right, intimately connected with the natural right of self-defense and not limited to civic participation.”

On abortion rights:

In 2006, she joined a list of people who signed a right to life ad. She later told a group that while Roe v. Wade wouldn’t be overturned, it’s extremely possible that access to abortion is limited.

On religion:

In an article about how religious judges should address certain cases she wrote “‘(Catholic judges) are obliged by oath, professional commitment, and the demands of citizenship to enforce the death penalty. They are also obliged to adhere to their church’s teaching on moral matters.’ — 1998 article co-written by Barrett in the Marquette Law Review”

When Dick Durban asked if she was a conservative catholic as she was being confirmed for her position on the 7th Circuit appeals she said “If you’re asking whether I take my faith seriously and I’m a faithful Catholic — I am, although I would stress that my personal church affiliation or my religious belief would not bear in the discharge of my duties as a judge.”

Her track record has suggested that she’s a constitutional originalist, meaning she reads the constitution as it was written in 1787 without considering its modern implications. This could be a dangerous situation for marginalized people’s rights who rely on the living document; people who weren’t included in the original intentions of the Constitution have to watch their rights be discussed in the court. It’s a sad reality. Amy Coney Barrett may just make it harder for marginalized people’s inclusion.

PLEASE KNOW WHAT YOU’RE VOTING FOR BEFORE WALKING INTO YOUR VOTING PRECINCT:

This link will allow you to see what your ballot will look like, so you can plan ahead. The website, in its entirety, lays out elections and further explains what might affect your vote.