Leila's Lines- Week 3

Polls:

Sample of 1000 registered voters:

Biden: 52.5% Trump 41.9%

Biden has an 10.6 point lead-- 1.7 points higher than last week’s lines

Trump approval rating: 48% approve (5% up from last week’s lines) while 51% disapprove (2% down from last week’s lines)

States with close races:

• North Carolina: Biden: 49.5% Trump: 46.2%

• Ohio: Biden: 46.9% Trump: 46.6%

• Florida: Biden: 49.4% Trump: 44.8%

• Georgia: Biden: 47.6% Trump: 47.0%

• Iowa: Biden: 48.0% Trump: 46.9%

• Texas: Biden: 47.0% Trump: 48.4%

• Arizona: Biden: 48.7% Trump: 44.9%

• Pennsylvania: Biden: 51.1% Trump: 43.9%

3 things that will affect voters:

Vice Presidential Debate:

This debate was much more informative than the chaos we called the presidential debate. Out of COVID-19-related precaution, walls of plexiglass were placed between candidates. Furthermore, they were allotted very specific times to speak as to not repeat the interruptions we saw from Trump. With that being said, there were still interruptions, leading to Kamala’s trending line: “Mr. Vice President, I’m speaking.” As a fellow woman, I was frustrated with Kamala being interrupted, but I envy her standing up for herself and holding her ground even as a man spoke over her.

Polls are showing that while the debate did not have a significant impact on voters’ decisions, it did boost Harris’s favorability rating. Debate watchers are seemingly more impressed with Harris’s performance than that of Pence. While 69% of viewers said her performance was “very good” or “good,” only 60% gave the same remarks for Pence. It’s interesting to note that both the vice presidential candidates got higher ratings than Trump; polls show that only 30% of viewers thought the president performed well. Pence’s net favorability before the debate was -14 and remained so after. Whereas Harris’s net favorability rating before the debate was +4 and ended up at +10 after the debate.

All in all, I don’t think the debate had a huge impact on who people plan to vote for. However, I do think it will make people more excited to show up to their polling place and cast their vote-- especially Biden/ Harris voters.

Trump is Mishandling COVID-19...AGAIN:

While Trump was still extremely contagious with COVID-19, he paraded around D.C. in his car, waving through crowd as he risked government officials’ lives who had to be in the car with him. It’s clear that while Trump was in the car he was violating what his own health officials have been recommending. This moment does not just represent his inability to combat COVID-19 but it also highlights the immense privilege he has.

People on social media have been outspoken about their personal experiences with the despair that the pandemic has brought into their lives. Many people have vocalized the mistreatment they or their loved ones have received which has either led to great suffering or death. While these people were turned away from hospital beds and were told to come back only when it was too late, Trump received a whole team of doctors and a luxury suite. He even was caught on record saying that he was aware of the difference in the help he has received in comparison to an everyday citizen. He explained that the president gets prestigious treatment while others do not. So, he’s on the record saying that he understands the disparity in the healthcare system, yet he has done little to alleviate such inequalities. Furthermore, some of his fellow republican acquaintances like Ted Cruz went to the hospital out of precautionary measures. Once again, people vocalized that their loved ones were being turned down from the hospital when they had difficulty breathing, yet Trump’s close friends and politicians get to take those beds before they even feel any immense effects of the virus.

It’s clear that people are frustrated with how Trump has treated his own case of COVID-19. He risked other people’s lives while he was parading in the car and has articulated the privilege he has in the healthcare system which we already knew he had. I’m not sure, though, that these events will have a great impact on voter turnout. I think that people who were unsure but leaning towards Biden/Harris may now feel more content in that decision. However, many Trump supporters may still be enthusiastic about his presidency because they are probably listening to his continued message of “easily” combatting the virus.

The Second Presidential Debate Was Officially Canceled:

The second presidential debate was originally scheduled for October 15th in Miami. However, after Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19, the Commission on Presidential Debates decided to move the debate to a virtual forum in order to protect the health of the candidates and other people involved. Trump rejected the idea and said he would not participate in the debate unless it was in its original, in-person setting. This debate was supposed to be a town hall style, meaning that the audience had the opportunity to ask questions rather than a moderator. Thus, the final debate scheduled for October 22nd may be either a one-on-one style with a traditional moderator or a town hall style.

The first debate didn’t have a huge impact on who people will vote for. What it did have an impact on, however, was Biden’s favorability rating. After the debate, Biden’s favorability rating increased by 3%, and his unfavorability rating decreased by 2%. On the other hand, Trump’s favorability rating decreased 1% and his unfavorability rating increased 2%. This leads me to think that the debate that would have happened on the 15th would continue to drive these numbers. For Biden, it would have probably increased his favorability rating while it continued to decrease Trump’s. So, in a sense, the lack of debate is better for Trump’s image because it protects him from an event which could further increase his unfavorability.

In order news:

Plot to Overthrow Michigan Government:

Plans to kidnap Governor Whitmer have recently been discovered of a Michigan Militia called the Wolverine Watchmen. Let’s talk about militias for a second. While the Second Amendment does establish “a well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed,” this does not necessarily guarantee the right to private militias. It most certainly does not guarantee the right for private militias to take government matters into their own hands and infringe on the safety of government officials. The plot to kidnap the governor and possibly kill her was undone when a member of the militia reached out to informants out of fear that the group was planning to target and kill police officers. The militia was planning to storm the capitol building before Election Day, hold politicians hostage, and try Whitmer for ‘treason.’

Voter Registration:

Is voter registration, in itself, a form of voter disenfranchisement? I’d say yes.

In other nations such as Canada, citizens aren’t required to go through the extra steps of registering before they vote. Not only do they not have to register potentially weeks before the election in order for their vote to count, but they don’t have to go through the trouble at all, allowing for a more accessible and equitable voting system. The hurdles of voting which are becoming extremely apparent during this election season are unjust and could be removed. These extra steps and difficulties to voting are extremely intentional and used as ways of more discrete voter disenfranchisement.