Leila's Lines- Week 5
Polls:
Sample of 1000 registered voters:
Biden: 52.0% Trump 43.4%
Biden has an 8.6 point lead-- .5 points lower than last week’s lines
Trump approval rating: 44.2% approve (1.6% up from last week’s lines) while 52.7% disapprove (0.9% down from last week’s lines)
States with close races:
North Carolina: Biden: 48.7% Trump: 46.7%
Ohio: Biden: 46.9% Trump: 47.2%
Florida: Biden: 48.7% Trump: 46.5%
Georgia: Biden: 48.5% Trump: 47.0%
Iowa: Biden: 45.6% Trump: 47.3%
Texas: Biden: 47.1% Trump: 48.4%
Arizona: Biden: 48.7% Trump: 45.6%
Pennsylvania: Biden: 50.0% Trump: 45.1%
Two days until the election:
With less than 48 hours until election day, I don’t think there’s much left that will influence voters-- especially considering the number of people who have already voted early (93,131,017 early votes which are 67.6% of the total votes cast in 2016). However, there are still important national affairs that are connected to the election. Instead of looking at three events’ impact on voters, we will explore a multitude of election-related topics in general.
Hillary Clinton This Time Four Years Ago:
Trump's 2016 success has made people question whether Biden's lead means much at all. However, a key difference between the 2016 election and the 2020 election is that during the final days leading up to the 2016 election, Trump was noticeably closing the gap in votes by succeeding in swing states. There has not been a clear close in the voting disparity between Biden and Trump, though. Furthermore, the bombshell of the private email server led to a detrimental disliking from many Americans towards Clinton; there has yet to be a significant surprise against Biden which could harm his 8.6 point lead.
Nine days before the election, Clinton had only a 4 point lead. Within the days leading up to the election, Trump was able to corral undecided voters in swing states where support matters most.
Within the days leading up to the 2016 election, Clinton maintained a relatively constant, negative net favorability rating. On the other hand, Biden has maintained a positive net favorability rating. Therefore, in this election people are less likely than they were in 2016 to vote for Trump or not vote at all due to their disliking of the democratic nominee. In order for Clinton to win, she would have had to win over people who disliked both her and Trump. All Biden has to do is maintain the voters who actually do like him, not go out of his way to sway undecided voters or Trump supporters.
In 2016, polls had shown Trump’s likelihood to win as an increasing possibility. However, current polls have shown little movement toward Trump’s success. Lastly, it’s important to know that even if the current polls have as much error as they did in 2016, Biden would still win.
Gen Z Ads:
As I was scrolling through TikTok, I saw a girl post a video about a hypothetical Biden ad of him sitting in a car, referencing the infamous Regina George line “get in loser, we’re going shopping.” Not long after, I saw the same TikTok user duet her video with screenshots of Biden in a car, seemingly bringing her exact vision to life. I’m not sure if her actual TikTok influenced his campaign strategies, but, nonetheless, Biden is targeting Gen Z and young voters extremely well by connecting to the interests of their demographic. Biden needs to relate to the younger crowd and understand not only what we care about but also understand our silly infatuations like the one people generally have with Mean Girls.
Your Role in Polling Predictions:
I have found that comparing polls and creating my own outcomes using an electoral college map of the country are addictions of mine. I lose track of time scrolling through different poll congregates and interactive maps, and I bet you--if you don’t already-- would too. Five Thiry Eight has put out an interactive map that allows users to choose which states will go to which candidates and then which other states will also go to said candidates based on how correct their polls are. The poll also explains how likely your chosen scenario is to actually happen and why. Furthermore, this poll focuses on swing states.
The website 270 to Win has also put out an interactive map. They share what their predictions are and allow users to make their own choices as well. The difference between this map and the previously explained map from Five Thirty-Eight is that the map from 270 to Win does not explain how one state's outcome will influence others based on poll predictions. In other words, this map allows you to choose the outcome of every state individually without showing how if a certain state goes to Biden then another state is also likely to go to Biden based on their polls.
The Guardian has another interesting interactive poll which also allows users to decide which states will go to which candidates. However, this feature is not set up like a map and is rather broken down into several states ranging from states with close races to Republican strongholds. This website also provides more background information as to how the poll might actually end up and how it has leaned in the past.
Pence Staff Testing Positive for COVID-19:
At least five people in Pence’s close circle have tested positive for the coronavirus within the last week, including chief of staff Marc Short and outside advisor Marty Obst. Even though both Pence and his wife worked in close connection with a multitude of people who tested positive for the virus, they both tested negative and are refusing to self-quarantine, defying CDC guidelines. Pence’s office is refusing to comment on the results of other aides’ tests, hiding the fact that a significant amount of more people could be positive. Although Pence is the head of the White House coronavirus task force, he is continuing to campaign and travel during the final days leading up to the election. He isn’t listening to health experts, setting a poor example as the head of the task force, and has claimed that he is an “essential worker” who needs to continue campaigning. Pence has rarely been seen wearing a mask, but he has worn one more so in recent days due to his exposure to the virus...he does not always have one on, though.
Pence is setting a harmful example for many Americans watching his every move. Coronavirus cases have hit record highs, and the current administration has taken a back seat to focus on the election, not the current public health emergency at hand.
Democrats are Expected to Win the Senate:
If it’s still unclear, I love interactive activities that pertain to the election. It only feels right to include one about the current senate races. So, here we are with yet again another Five Thirty-Eight activity because they truly do a thorough, unparalleled job of allowing users to understand a variety of outcomes.
Things to Watch/ Listen to:
Trump 60 Minutes interview: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-trump-60-minutes-interview-lesley-stahl-2020-10-25/
Podcast about the electoral college: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/podcasts/the-daily/electoral-college-trump-clinton-gore-bush.html
P.S. all the “The Daily” podcasts are worthwhile to listen to…
Podcast and article about criminal justice: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/magazine/kamala-harris-crime-prison.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
Something nice for a change when it comes to politics: agree on civility but disagree on fundaments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oR8tNvgBcQ
This is my final week of "Leila's Lines" before the election, but I will continue the posts because we all know there is still so much to come with this election. See you after election day!
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